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Indeed, over the long term it is the key driver. But when it comes to near-term returns, growths contribution to shareholder returns is secondary to improvements in the companys valuation multiple - market value divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. A relatively small number of factors explain as much as 80 to 90 percent of the differences in valuation multiples among peers, BCG says.
Those factors tend to cluster into four broad categories: revenue growth, profitability, risk, and fade (BCGs term for the confidence investors have that current levels of growth or profitability can be sustained). Which factor plays the greater role in determining a companys valuation multiple depends on its business. Revenue growth can be a key differentiator in high- growth industries such as software, looking for the personal loan example, but a secondary factor in, say, pharmaceuticals, where the research-and-development spend relative to revenue is a better indicator of long-term prospects.
On the other hand, BCG argues that a number of broad trends are today affecting valuation multiples across many industries.